Метод оцінки ризику при відмові двигуна на повітряному судні в польоті на основі мережі Байєса
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Předmět: |
lcsh:Military Science
Mathematical model Computer science lcsh:U Bayesian network Statistical model Graph theory computer.software_genre people.cause_of_death Joint probability distribution Aviation accident Graph (abstract data type) Data mining people computer ризик авіаційні події мережа байєса відмова двигуна особливі випадки в польоті Event (probability theory) |
| Zdroj: | Збірник наукових праць Харківського національного університету Повітряних Сил, Iss 2(64), Pp 53-60 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2518-1661 2073-7378 |
| DOI: | 10.30748/zhups.2020.64.08 |
| Popis: | The subject of the study in the article is the risk assessment for the case of a special situation-engine failure on the aircraft in flight. The goal is to model and quantify the risk in the event of situations that could lead to engine failure on an aircraft using Bayesian networks. The tasks are: analysis of a number of mathematical models that should be used to quantify safety in the field of safety, construction of a mathematical model of risk, which demonstrates the development of possible events as a result of engine failure using Bayesian networks. This is necessary to determine the probability of aviation accidents of varying degrees. The methods used are: graph theory, Bayesian networks, methods of analysis and synthesis of complex information systems, methods of simulation and statistical modeling. The following results were obtained. A mathematical model is built, which allows to determine the level of risk in the event of such a danger as engine failure on the aircraft. A mathematical model is built, which allows to determine the level of risk in the event of such a danger as engine failure on the aircraft. The table is made using Bayesian networks, has the form of a graph with tables of unconditional, conditional and joint probability distributions. A mathematical model is built, which allows to determine the level of risk in the event of such a danger as engine failure on the aircraft. The table is made using Bayesian networks, has the form of a graph with tables of unconditional, conditional and joint probability distributions. With the help of the constructed model the most probable result of manifestation of such danger as failure of the engine on the aircraft is defined. The highest level of risk is also determined. Conclusions. The direction of further research is development and construction of a decision support system to improve the operation of the air traffic controller. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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