The dynamics of persistent heatwaves in European summers: An impacts perspective
| Autor: | Pappert, D., Tuel, A., Coumou, D., Vrac, M., Martius, O. |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| DOI: | 10.57757/iugg23-3213 |
| Popis: | Persistent summer weather can result in extreme events with enormous socio-economic impacts; recent summers in Europe have notably demonstrated this. The dynamics that cause persistent surface weather, as well as potential changes under anthropogenic climate change, are the subject of active scientific debate. Summertime atmospheric dynamics have nevertheless received less attention and we are far from obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms involved in the formation of persistent weather conditions in summer. One challenge concerns disentangling the role of recurrent vs stationary atmospheric flow with regard to persistent surface weather in Europe. Starting from an impact-based definition of persistent hot conditions, we look at the associated circulation patterns and characterise their persistence by making use of metrics and methods to quantify the self- similarity of system values. We will use the CEMS-LENS2 ensemble dataset to take advantage of its large sample of persistent surface weather episodes under current and future climate conditions and study the associated dynamics. Deeper investigation into the dynamical processes controlling persistent flow conditions over Europe in summer is essential for improved predictability at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale and highly relevant for risk preparedness. Results from the study will help to move the discussion on dynamical persistence and climate impacts forward. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|