On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation: a diagnostic approach applied to three models of increasing complexity on 20 mountainous catchments
Autor: | Vazken Andréassian, L. Coron, Charles Perrin, Frédéric Hendrickx, M. Bourqui |
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Přispěvatelé: | Hydrosystèmes et bioprocédés (UR HBAN), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Simulation et Traitement de l'information pour l'Exploitation des systèmes de Production (EDF R&D STEP), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF), Hydrosystèmes et Bioprocédés (UR HBAN) |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2014 |
Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Hydrological modelling media_common.quotation_subject Transferability 0207 environmental engineering 02 engineering and technology lcsh:Technology 01 natural sciences RELATION PLUIE DEBIT lcsh:TD1-1066 Structural complexity Water balance MODELE HYDROLOGIQUE Robustness (computer science) Econometrics Calibration Mean flow FRANCE SUD lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering 020701 environmental engineering lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences media_common ESTIMATION DES PARAMETRES lcsh:GE1-350 NON STATIONNARITE lcsh:T lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation ETALONNAGE BASSIN VERSANT lcsh:G [SDE]Environmental Sciences Conceptual model Environmental science ROBUSTESSE ZONE DE MONTAGNE |
Zdroj: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union, 2014, 18 (2), p. 727-p. 746. ⟨10.5194/hess-18-727-2014⟩ Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Iss 2, Pp 727-746 (2014) |
ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
Popis: | This paper investigates the robustness of rainfall–runoff models when their parameters are transferred in time. More specifically, we propose an approach to diagnose their ability to simulate water balance on periods with different hydroclimatic characteristics. The testing procedure consists in a series of parameter calibrations over 10 yr periods and the systematic analysis of mean flow volume errors on long records. This procedure was applied to three conceptual models of increasing structural complexity over 20 mountainous catchments in southern France. The results showed that robustness problems are common. Errors on 10 yr mean flow volume were significant for all calibration periods and model structures. Various graphical and numerical tools were used to investigate these errors and unexpectedly strong similarities were found in the temporal evolutions of these volume errors. We indeed showed that relative changes in simulated mean flow between 10 yr periods can remain similar, regardless of the calibration period or the conceptual model used. Surprisingly, using longer records for parameters optimisation or using a semi-distributed 19-parameter daily model instead of a simple 1-parameter annual formula did not provide significant improvements regarding these simulation errors on flow volumes. While the actual causes for these robustness problems can be manifold and are difficult to identify in each case, this work highlights that the transferability of water balance adjustments made during calibration can be poor, with potentially huge impacts in the case of studies in non-stationary conditions. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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