Crecimiento y desempleo en Ecuador: Enfoque asimétrico de la Ley de Okun (período 2004:1-2019:4)
| Autor: | Guamán Moreno, Diana Carolina, Maldonado Gómez, Miguel Ángel, Salcedo Muñoz, Virgilio Eduardo, Sotomayor Pereira, Jorge Guido |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Zdroj: | ECA Sinergia; Vol. 12 Núm. 1 (2021): Enero-Abril; 27-42 |
| ISSN: | 2528-7869 1390-6623 2004-2019 |
| DOI: | 10.33936/eca_sinergia.v12i1.2789 |
| Popis: | El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar la relación entre crecimiento y desempleo en Ecuador desde una perspectiva asimétrica para el período 2004-2019, a partir de información estadística de periodicidad trimestral. Se estima mediante mínimos cuadrados ordinarios la ecuación de primeras diferencias de Okun que incluye una función indicadora para capturar los coeficientes de asimetría. Los resultados hallados sugieren una relación inversa significativa entre crecimiento y desempleo, pero el efecto es mayor en magnitud cuando el crecimiento es negativo. En este caso, 1 % de caída en el PIB causa un aumento de 0,63 puntos en la tasa de desempleo, mientras que en períodos de crecimiento la respuesta es leve, sugiriendo entonces la preponderancia de efectos asimétricos en la relación estudiada. La principal conclusión es que las autoridades deben diseñar políticas para reducir más aun el desempleo cuando la economía crece, y otras medidas específicas para contener el ascenso del desempleo cuando la economía sufre contracciones severas en términos de crecimiento. Palabras clave: Crecimiento, desempleo, Ecuador, Ley de Okun, asimetría. ABSTRACT The objective of this work is to estimate the relationship between growth and unemployment in Ecuador from an asymmetric perspective for the period 2004-2019, based on statistical information on a quarterly basis. Okun’s first difference equation is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which includes an indicator function to capture the skewness coefficients. The results found affect a significant inverse relationship between growth and unemployment, but the effect is greater in magnitude when growth is negative. In this case, 1% of the fall in GDP causes a decrease of 0.64 points in the unemployment rate, while in the reduction of growth the response is slight, suggesting then the preponderance of the asymmetric effects in the relationship studied. The main conclusion is that the authorities have specific policies to further reduce unemployment when the economy grows, and other specific measures to contain the rise in unemployment when the economy suffers severe contractions in terms of growth. Keywords: Growth, unemployment, Ecuador, Okun’s law, asymmetry. The objective of this work is to estimate the relationship between growth and unemployment in Ecuador from an asymmetric perspective for the period 2004-2019, based on statistical information on a quarterly basis. Okun’s first difference equation is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which includes an indicator function to capture the skewness coefficients. The results found affect a significant inverse relationship between growth and unemployment, but the effect is greater in magnitude when growth is negative. In this case, 1% of the fall in GDP causes a decrease of 0.64 points in the unemployment rate, while in the reduction of growth the response is slight, suggesting then the preponderance of the asymmetric effects in the relationship studied. The main conclusion is that the authorities have specific policies to further reduce unemployment when the economy grows, and other specific measures to contain the rise in unemployment when the economy suffers severe contractions in terms of growth. Keywords:Growth, unemployment, Ecuador, Okun’s law, asymmetry. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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