Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics : demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam
| Autor: | Nicolas Antoine-Moussiaux, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Thang D. Phan, Guillaume Fournié, Alexis Delabouglise, Ton Dinh Vu, Marc Choisy, Marie-Isabelle Peyre |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Animal et gestion intégrée des risques (UPR AGIRs), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle (MIVEGEC), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Vietnam National University of Agriculture (VNUA), Institut Vétérinaire Tropical [Liège], Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire [Liège], Royal Veterinary College [London], University of London [London] |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Time Factors Climate medicine.disease_cause L73 - Maladies des animaux Poultry Disease Outbreaks 0403 veterinary science Zoonoses Cluster Analysis Socioeconomics 2. Zero hunger education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary grippe aviaire hautement pathogène Geography Ecology U10 - Informatique mathématiques et statistiques Incidence Incidence (epidemiology) Commerce agricole 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Épidémiologie Vietnam Medicine Livestock Seasons zoonose Meat 040301 veterinary sciences Science Population E70 - Commerce commercialisation et distribution Wavelet Analysis Article 03 medical and health sciences medicine Animals education Consumption (economics) E21 - Agro-industrie [SDV.BA.MVSA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Veterinary medicine and animal Health business.industry Outbreak Seasonality medicine.disease Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 030104 developmental biology Influenza in Birds Poultry meat [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie business |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 2017, 7, pp.5905. ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6⟩ Scientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2017) Scientific Reports, 2017, 7, pp.5905. ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6⟩ |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6⟩ |
| Popis: | While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods – wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling – we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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