An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability
| Autor: | Ray Grondin, Derek J. Koehler, Chris M. White |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2003 |
| Předmět: |
Linguistics and Language
Experimental and Cognitive Psychology Statistical model Support Cognition Models Psychological Residual Bayesian inference Probability Theory Judgment Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology Probability theory Artificial Intelligence Prior probability Developmental and Educational Psychology Econometrics Humans Cues Psychology Statistical hypothesis testing |
| Zdroj: | Cognitive psychology. 46(2) |
| ISSN: | 0010-0285 |
| Popis: | A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a "residual" hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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