Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model
| Autor: | Bing Wang, Xiao-Jie Liang, Yi-Ming Wei, Hao Zhang, Lu Wang |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: |
business.industry
Environmental resource management Vulnerability Climate change Management Monitoring Policy and Law 7. Clean energy Renewable energy Nameplate capacity Climate change Hydropower generation Vulnerability General Energy 13. Climate action jel:Q54 11. Sustainability Environmental science Precipitation China business Climate change in China Hydropower |
| Popis: | This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|