Voting intention polls impact campaign revenues: the correlation of expectation of victory and campaign finance in Senate disputes

Autor: Bruno Fernando da Silva, Ricardo Dantas Gonçalves
Jazyk: portugalština
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Revista de Sociologia e Política, Volume: 27, Issue: 71, Article number: e005, Published: 09 MAR 2020
Revista de Sociologia e Política, Vol 27, Iss 71 (2020)
Revista de Sociologia e Política v.27 n.71 2019
Revista de Sociologia e Política
Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR)
instacron:UFPR
Popis: RESUMO Introducao: Este artigo trata do financiamento de campanhas no Brasil. Embora nao faltem evidencias de que as arrecadacoes de campanha estao associadas ao sucesso eleitoral, pouco se sabe sobre o quanto a intencao de voto pode afetar o montante arrecadado pelos candidatos. Nosso objetivo e investigar este fenomeno. Materiais e Metodos: A analise empirica foi realizada com dados de prestacoes de contas eleitorais dos 134 candidatos ao Senado Federal em 2014 e com resultados de pesquisas de intencao de voto do instituto IBOPE. Utilizamos como ferramentas de analise estatisticas descritivas e regressao linear multipla. Resultados: Os resultados atestam o impacto positivo das intencoes de voto aferidas nas sondagens pre-eleitorais e do apoio do governador sobre as arrecadacoes totais. Ja ser mandatario e candidato a reeleicao ( incumbency ) foi um fator ineficaz para a explicacao de quase todas as receitas. Discussao: Em virtude da associacao encontrada entre intencao de voto e financiamento eleitoral, alertamos para a necessidade de considerar a existencia de endogenia na relacao entre dinheiro e voto nas disputas majoritarias, visto que as variaveis sao mutuamente afetadas. Alem disso, sugerimos que a relacao entre viabilidade do candidato e financiamento eleitoral reafirma a ideia de que os doadores agem de maneira estrategica ao definir quais candidatos devem apoiar. Nesse sentido, doadores optam por candidaturas viaveis que contam com apoios politicos relevantes e oferecem, assim, menos riscos de derrota. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: financiamento de campanhas; expectativa de vitoria; pesquisas eleitorais; Senado; eleicoes de 2014. Voting intention polls impact campaign revenues: the correlation of expectation of victory and campaign finance in Senate disputes ABSTRACT Introduction: The article is on campaign financing in Brazil. Although there is no lack of evidence corroborating the association between campaign fund raising and electoral success, little is known about how much the intention to vote can affect the amount of resources gathered by the candidate. Our purpose is to investigate this subject. Materials and Methods: Empirical analyses was carried out based on data on electoral accountability from 134 candidates to Federal Senate in 2014 and on polling research made by IBOPE. As analytical tools, we use descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression. Results: The results attest to the positive impact of the voting intentions obtained in the pre-electoral polls and the support of the governor on the total amount raised. Being an incumbent, on its turn, was ineffective in explaining almost all the funding. Discussion: Due to the association found between the intention to vote and electoral financing, we warn of the need to consider the existence of endogeneity in the relationship between money and voting in the majority elections, since the variables are mutually affected. In addition, we suggest that the relationship between candidate viability and electoral funding reaffirms the idea that donors act strategically in defining which candidates to support. In this sense, donors choose viable candidacies that have relevant political support and thus offer less risk of defeat. KEYWORDS: Campaign finance; Expectation of victory; Election polls; Senate; Brazilian general elections of 2014.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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