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Despite growing interest in developing extensive fuel treatment programs to prevent catastrophic wildfires in the Mediterranean region, there is little information on the projected effectiveness of fuel treatments in terms of avoided exposure and risk. In Portugal, a fuel management plan aiming to prevent loss of lives, reduce large fires (500 ha), and reduce annual burned area is under implementation, with particular emphasis on the nation-wide fuel break network (FBN). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of the planned FBN in terms of meeting fire management objectives, costs, and benefits. We first estimated the overall effectiveness of the FBN at intersecting modeled large fires (500 ha) and at reducing exposure to protected areas and residential buildings using wildfire simulation modeling. Then, the fuel break burn-over percentage, i.e. the percentage of fires that are not contained at the FBN, was modeled as a function of pre-defined flame length thresholds for individual FBN segments. For the planned FBN, the results suggested a potential reduction of up to 13% in the annual burned area due to large fires (ca. 13,000 ha), of up to 8% in the annual number of residential buildings exposed (ca. 100 residential buildings), and up to 14% in the annual burned area in protected areas (ca. 2400 ha). The expected burn-over percentage was highly variable among the segments in response to estimated fire intensity, and an average decrease of 40% of the total benefits was estimated. The most important fuel breaks typically showed a higher percentage of fire burn-over, and hence reduction in effectiveness. We also showed that the current implementation of FBN follows a random sequence, suboptimal for all objectives. Our results suggest that additional landscape-scale fuel reduction strategies are required to meet short-term national wildfire management targets. |
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