Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century

Autor: Edward R. Cook, Lucas Osvaldo Bianchi, Ian Harris, Felipe Flores, Tomas Muñoz, Antonio Lara, Moisés Rojas-Badilla, Diego Aliste, Gonzalo Velazquez, Ignacio A. Mundo, Claudio Alvarez, Vladimir Matskovsky, Lidio López, Eugenia Marcotti, Fleur Couvreux, A. Park Williams, Ariel A. Muñoz, María Prieto, Juan Carlos Aravena, Jonathan Barichivich, Emilio Cuq, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Jason E. Smerdon, Milagros Rodríguez-Catón, Mariano Masiokas, Facundo Rojas, Philip Jones, José A. Boninsegna, Isabella Aguilera-Betti, Brian H. Luckman, Rocio Urrutia-Jalabert, Duncan A. Christie, Álvaro González-Reyes, Ana Marina Srur, Carlos LeQuesne, Mariano S. Morales, Ricardo Villalba, David Lister
Přispěvatelé: Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales [Mendoza] (CONICET-IANIGLA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo [Mendoza] (UNCUYO), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidad Austral de Chile, Universidad Mayor [Santiago de Chile], Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidad de Magallanes (UMAG), Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception] ((CR)2), Universidad de Concepción - University of Concepcion [Chile], Department of Geography [London, Ontario], University of Western Ontario (UWO), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso (PUCV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidad de Concepción [Chile]
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
drought atlas
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate
Rain
0208 environmental biotechnology
Climate change
Geographic Mapping
Context (language use)
02 engineering and technology
Subtropics
01 natural sciences
Global Warming
Trees
extreme hydroclimate events
purl.org/becyt/ford/1 [https]
purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 [https]
Earth
Atmospheric
and Planetary Sciences
Models
Dendrochronology
[SDV.BBM]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biochemistry
Molecular Biology
South America hydroclimate
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Models
Statistical
Multidisciplinary
Southern Hemisphere climate modes
Global warming
Westerlies
15. Life on land
Statistical
South America
palaeoclimate reconstruction
020801 environmental engineering
Droughts
Geography
13. Climate action
Climatology
Middle latitudes
Greenhouse gas
Physical Sciences
Zdroj: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020, 117 (29), pp.16816-16823. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2002411117⟩
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 117, iss 29
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
instacron:CONICET
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, National Academy of Sciences, 2020, 117 (29), pp.16816-16823. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2002411117⟩
ISSN: 0027-8424
1091-6490
Popis: Significance The SADA is an annually-resolved hydroclimate atlas in South America that spans the continent south of 12°S from 1400 to 2000 CE. Based on 286 tree ring records and instrumentally-based estimates of soil moisture, the SADA complements six drought atlases worldwide filling a geographical gap in the Southern Hemisphere. Independently validated with historical records, SADA shows that the frequency of widespread severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the 1960s is unprecedented. Major hydroclimate events expressed in the SADA are associated with strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies. Coupled ENSO-SAM anomalies together with subtropical low-level jet intensification due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions may cause more extreme droughts and pluvials in South America during the 21st century.
South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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