Impact Assessment And Stochastic Modeling Of Morphometric Parameters Of Thermokarst Hazard For Unpaved Roads
| Autor: | Aleksey S. Victorov, Maria V. Arkhipova, Andrey Zverev, Timofey Orlov |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
roads
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Correlation coefficient 0208 environmental biotechnology Geography Planning and Development Soil science 02 engineering and technology Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 01 natural sciences Thermokarst remote sensing Natural hazard humaninduced thermokarst pearson’s criterion Linear complex structure 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Geography (General) geography geography.geographical_feature_category Probabilistic logic Statistical model mathematical morphology of landscapes Empirical distribution function 020801 environmental engineering Log-normal distribution G1-922 Geology stochastic modeling |
| Zdroj: | Geography, Environment, Sustainability, Vol 13, Iss 4, Pp 98-106 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2542-1565 2071-9388 |
| DOI: | 10.24057/2071-9388-2020-54 |
| Popis: | Active construction of new roads and other linear structures requires new techniques for the natural hazard assessment. These techniques can involve both stochastic modeling and remote sensing data (RSD). First, the dynamics of thermokarst appearance along an unpaved road (winter road) was analyzed. Then a probabilistic model of the thermokarst morphological pattern was developed for the area in the vicinity of a linear structure, a road in particular. The model operates with initial assumptions based on the physical parameters of thermokarst development and includes relations for estimating the distribution of morphometric dimensions of thermokarst depressions (ponds). The model was empirically tested for the study area, which represented a site with an unpaved road located in West Siberia region. To verify the model, we calculated the correlation coefficient values for the length of the focus projections on the linear structure and the perpendicular axis and compared the empirical distribution of the projections with the theoretical lognormal distribution using the Pearson’s criterion. The proposed model assumptions appeared to be valid for the study area, which makes it possible to proceed to the problem of probabilistic impact risk assessment to a linear structure by foci of human-induced thermokarst. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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