A Bayesian network methodology for optimal security management of critical infrastructures
| Autor: | Alessio Misuri, Nima Khakzad, Genserik Reniers, Valerio Cozzani |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Misuri A., Khakzad N., Reniers G., Cozzani V. |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
021110 strategic
defence & security studies Decision support system 021103 operations research Economics Computer science media_common.quotation_subject 0211 other engineering and technologies Complex system Bayesian network 02 engineering and technology Security management Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Critical infrastructure Variety (cybernetics) Interdependence Limited memory influence diagram Risk analysis (engineering) Cost-effectiveness analysi Influence diagram Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Engineering sciences. Technology Expected utility hypothesis media_common |
| Zdroj: | Reliability engineering and system safety |
| ISSN: | 0951-8320 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.028 |
| Popis: | Security management of critical infrastructures is a complex task as a great variety of technical and socio-political information is needed to realistically predict the risk of intentional malevolent acts. In the present study, a methodology based on Limited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) has been developed for the protection of critical infrastructures via cost-effective allocation of security measures. LIMID is an extension of Bayesian network (BN) intended for decision-making, allowing for efficient modelling of complex systems while accounting for interdependencies and interaction of system components. The probability updating feature of BN has been used to investigate the effect of vulnerabilities on adversaries’ preferences when planning attacks. Moreover, the proposed methodology has been shown to be able to identify an optimal defensive strategy given an attack through maximizing defenders’ expected utility. Despite being demonstrated via a chemical facility, the methodology can easily be tailored to a wide variety of critical infrastructures. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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