Path-dependent course of epidemic: are two phases of quarantine better than one?
| Autor: | Evgeniy Khain, Varun Nimmagadda, Oleg Kogan |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Physics - Physics and Society
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Degree (graph theory) Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech) Computer science Node (networking) Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) General Physics and Astronomy FOS: Physical sciences Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) Degree distribution 01 natural sciences Outcome (probability) 010305 fluids & plasmas law.invention law FOS: Biological sciences 0103 physical sciences Quarantine Statistics Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution 010306 general physics Epidemic model Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics Path dependent |
| DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2011.13826 |
| Popis: | The importance of a strict quarantine has been widely debated during the COVID-19 epidemic even from the purely epidemiological point of view. One argument against strict lockdown measures is that once the strict quarantine is lifted, the epidemic comes back, and so the cumulative number of infected individuals during the entire epidemic will stay the same. We consider an SIR model on a network and follow the disease dynamics, modeling the phases of quarantine by changing the node degree distribution. We show that the system reaches different steady states based on the history: the outcome of the epidemic is path-dependent despite the same final node degree distribution. The results indicate that two-phase route to the final node degree distribution (a strict phase followed by a soft phase) are always better than one phase (the same soft one) unless all the individuals have the same number of connections at the end (the same degree); in the latter case, the overall number of infected is indeed history-independent. The modeling also suggests that the optimal procedure of lifting the quarantine consists of releasing nodes in the order of their degree - highest first. Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted to EPL (Europhysics Letters) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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