Construction of A New Dose–Response Model for Staphylococcus aureus Considering Growth and Decay Kinetics on Skin
| Autor: | Kirk D. Dolan, Elaheh Esfahanian, Jade Mitchell, Umesh Adhikari |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Microbiology (medical) Percentile 030106 microbiology Gompertz function lcsh:Medicine 010501 environmental sciences Bacterial growth Skin infection medicine.disease_cause Residual 01 natural sciences Article 03 medical and health sciences medicine Immunology and Allergy Molecular Biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Mathematics dose-response General Immunology and Microbiology lcsh:R Gompertz model medicine.disease S. aureus Confidence interval Exponential function growth and decay Infectious Diseases Staphylococcus aureus inverse problem Biological system |
| Zdroj: | Pathogens Volume 8 Issue 4 Pathogens, Vol 8, Iss 4, p 253 (2019) |
| ISSN: | 2076-0817 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/pathogens8040253 |
| Popis: | In order to determine the relationship between an exposure dose of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) on the skin and the risk of infection, an understanding of the bacterial growth and decay kinetics is very important. Models are essential tools for understanding and predicting bacterial kinetics and are necessary to predict the dose of organisms post-exposure that results in a skin infection. One of the challenges in modeling bacterial kinetics is the estimation of model parameters, which can be addressed using an inverse problem approach. The objective of this study is to construct a microbial kinetic model of S. aureus on human skin and use the model to predict concentrations of S. aureus that result in human infection. In order to model the growth and decay of S. aureus on skin, a Gompertz inactivation model was coupled with a Gompertz growth model. A series of analyses, including ordinary least squares regression, scaled sensitivity coefficient analysis, residual analysis, and parameter correlation analysis were conducted to estimate the parameters and to describe the model uncertainty. Based on these analyses, the proposed model parameters were estimated with high accuracy. The model was then used to develop a new dose-response model for S. aureus using the exponential dose&ndash response model. The new S. aureus model has an optimized k parameter equivalent to 8.05 × 10&minus 8 with 95th percentile confidence intervals between 6.46 × 8 and 1.00 × 7. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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