Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-honeymoon Period Outbreaks
| Autor: | Angela R. McLean, Amy Wesolowski, Justin Lessler, William J. Moss, C. J.E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, Amy Winter, Simon Cauchemez |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Princeton University, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health [Baltimore], Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Oxford [Oxford], National Institutes of Health [Bethesda] (NIH), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Oxford |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Microbiology (medical)
medicine.medical_specialty Measles Vaccine Epidemic dynamics MESH: Disease Susceptibility MESH: Measles Vaccine Biology Antibodies Viral Microbiology Measles Mass Vaccination Serology Disease Outbreaks 03 medical and health sciences Virology medicine Cost of illness Humans Serologic Tests MESH: Disease Outbreaks [MATH]Mathematics [math] 030304 developmental biology 0303 health sciences MESH: Humans 030306 microbiology Public health MESH: Serologic Tests Outbreak medicine.disease 3. Good health Vaccination Infectious Diseases Vaccination Campaigns MESH: Measles [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie MESH: Mass Vaccination Disease Susceptibility Public Health MESH: Public Health MESH: Antibodies Viral Demography |
| Zdroj: | Trends in Microbiology Trends in Microbiology, Elsevier, 2020, 28 (8), pp.597-600. ⟨10.1016/j.tim.2020.04.009⟩ Trends in Microbiology, 2020, 28 (8), pp.597-600. ⟨10.1016/j.tim.2020.04.009⟩ |
| ISSN: | 1878-4380 0966-842X |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.tim.2020.04.009⟩ |
| Popis: | International audience; Measles vaccination is a public health 'best buy', with the highest cost of illness averted of any vaccine-preventable disease (Ozawa et al., Bull. WHO 2017;95:629). In recent decades, substantial reductions have been made in the number of measles cases, with an estimated 20 million deaths averted from 2000 to 2017 (Dabbagh et al., MMWR 2018;67:1323). Yet, an important feature of epidemic dynamics is that large outbreaks can occur following years of apparently successful control (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Such 'post-honeymoon period' outbreaks are a result of the nonlinear dynamics of epidemics (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Anticipating post-honeymoon outbreaks could lead to substantial gains in public health, helping to guide the timing, age-range, and location of catch-up vaccination campaigns (Grais et al., J. Roy. Soc. Interface 2008003B6:67-74). Theoretical conditions for such outbreaks are well understood for measles, yet the information required to make these calculations policy-relevant is largely lacking. We propose that a major extension of serological studies to directly characterize measles susceptibility is a high priority. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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