A model of covid-19 transmission to understand the effectiveness of the containment measures: application to data from France
| Autor: | Catherine Beaumont, Malicki Zorom, Pascal Zongo, Gisèle Mophou, René Dorville |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Laboratoire des matériaux et molécules en milieu Agressif [EA 7526] (L3MA), Université des Antilles (UA), Institut international d'ingénierie de l'eau et de l'environnement (2iE), Laboratoire de Mathématiques Informatique et Applications (LAMIA), Biologie des Oiseaux et Aviculture (BOA), Université de Tours (UT)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Université des Antilles (Pôle Martinique), Unité de recherches Avicoles, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université de Tours-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Transmission rate Population Pneumonia Viral [MATH.MATH-DS]Mathematics [math]/Dynamical Systems [math.DS] containment measures law.invention 03 medical and health sciences Betacoronavirus new wave 0302 clinical medicine 37N25 law [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases Statistics 92D30 Humans Fraction (mathematics) Computer Simulation 030212 general & internal medicine [MATH]Mathematics [math] education Pandemics Mathematics education.field_of_study Containment (computer programming) Original Paper [SDV.MHEP.ME]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Emerging diseases 2000 MSC: 92D25 37N25 92D30 SARS-CoV-2 Social distance Reproducibility of Results COVID-19 Models Theoretical Basic reproduction ratio 030104 developmental biology Transmission (mechanics) Infectious Diseases Communicable Disease Control [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie France new wave Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 92D25 Coronavirus Infections |
| Zdroj: | Epidemiology and Infection Epidemiology and Infection, Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2020, 148, pp.e221. ⟨10.1017/S0950268820002162⟩ Epidemiology and Infection, Cambridge University Press (CUP), In press |
| ISSN: | 0950-2688 1469-4409 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/S0950268820002162⟩ |
| Popis: | The main objective of this paper is to address the following question: are the containment measures imposed by most of the world governments effective and sufficient to stop the epidemic of COVID-19 beyond the lock-down period? In this paper, we propose a mathematical model which allows us to investigate and analyse this problem. We show by means of the reproductive number,${\cal R}_0$that the containment measures appear to have slowed the growth of the outbreak. Nevertheless, these measures remain only effective as long as a very large fraction of population,p, greater than the critical value$1-1/{\cal R}_0$remains confined. Using French current data, we give some simulation experiments with five scenarios including: (i) the validation of model withpestimated to 93%, (ii) the study of the effectiveness of containment measures, (iii) the study of the effectiveness of the large-scale testing, (iv) the study of the social distancing and wearing masks measures and (v) the study taking into account the combination of the large-scale test of detection of infected individuals and the social distancing with linear progressive easing of restrictions. The latter scenario was shown to be effective at overcoming the outbreak if the transmission rate decreases to 75% and the number of tests of detection is multiplied by three. We also noticed that if the measures studied in our five scenarios are taken separately then the second wave might occur at least as far as the parameter values remain unchanged. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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