Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050

Autor: Claudia Kemfert, Thorsten Burandt, Pao-Yu Oei, Frederik Seehaus, Christian von Hirschhausen, Konstantin Löffler, Anna Eidens, Felix Wejda, Hans-Karl Bartholdsen
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Control and Optimization
Economics
020209 energy
Energy system modeling
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
02 engineering and technology
010501 environmental sciences
lcsh:Technology
01 natural sciences
Energy policy
GENeSYS-MOD
System model
Conference of the parties
German
Resource (project management)
ddc:330
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Energy transformation
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Engineering (miscellaneous)
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
decarbonization
lcsh:T
Renewable Energy
Sustainability and the Environment
business.industry
energy system modeling
renewables
energy policy
energy transformation
Energiewende
Environmental economics
Decarbonization
language.human_language
Renewable energy
language
Electricity
Renewables
business
Energy (miscellaneous)
Zdroj: Energies; Volume 12; Issue 15; Pages: 2988
Bartholdsen, H K, Eidens, A, Löffler, K, Seehaus, F, Wejda, F, Burandt, T, Oei, P Y, Kemfert, C & von Hirschhausen, C 2019, ' Pathways for Germany’s low-carbon energy transformation towards 2050 ', ENERGIES, vol. 12, no. 15, 2988 . https://doi.org/10.3390/en12152988
Energies, Vol 12, Iss 15, p 2988 (2019)
ISSN: 1996-1073
DOI: 10.3390/en12152988
Popis: Like many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO2-emissions following the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successes in decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende. However, further steps in this direction, also concerning the heat and transport sectors, have stalled. This paper describes three possible pathways for the transformation of the German energy system until 2050. The scenarios take into account current climate politics on a global, European, and German level and also include different demand projections, technological trends and resource prices. The model includes the sectors power, heat, and transportation and works on a Federal State level. For the analysis, the linear cost-optimizing Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) is used to calculate the cost-efficient paths and technology mixes. We find that a reduction of CO2 of more than 80% in the less ambitious scenario can be welfare enhancing compared to a scenario without any climate mitigating policies. Even higher decarbonization rates of 95% are feasible and needed to comply with international climate targets, yet related to high effort in transforming the subsector of process heat. The different pathways depicted in this paper render chances and risks of transforming the German energy system under various external influences.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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