Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK
| Autor: | Chit Selvarajah, Lise Retat, Laura Webber, Daniel Hunt, Katrina Brown, Martin Brown, Andre Knuchel-Takano, Arti Bhimjiyani, Abbygail Jaccard |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Health (social science) Population Psychological intervention Microsimulation Smoking Prevention Disease 01 natural sciences disease burden 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Environmental health tobacco microsimulation medicine Prevalence Humans tobacco-free 030212 general & internal medicine Economic impact analysis 0101 mathematics education Socioeconomic status Disease burden education.field_of_study business.industry Public health 010102 general mathematics Smoking End game Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Models Theoretical United Kingdom economic burden Costs and Cost Analysis Public Health business |
| Zdroj: | Hunt, D, Knuchel-Takano, A, Jaccard, A, Bhimjiyani, A, Retat, L, Selvarajah, C, Brown, K, Webber, L L & Brown, M 2018, ' Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence : The public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK ', Tobacco Control, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 129-135 . https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053507 |
| ISSN: | 1468-3318 |
| DOI: | 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053507 |
| Popis: | IntroductionSmoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a ‘tobacco-free’ ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups.MethodsA non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue.ResultsIf trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035—well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone.ConclusionThese findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco ‘endgame’. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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