Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil
Autor: | Patrícia Brasil, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Laís Picinini Freitas, Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz, Leonardo Soares Bastos |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Immunity Herd Microcephaly Population level Epidemiology Population Immunization Secondary lcsh:Medicine Cross Reactions Article Zika virus Herd immunity Dengue fever Dengue 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine education Epidemics lcsh:Science education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary biology Zika Virus Infection lcsh:R Ecological study Bayes Theorem Zika Virus Dengue Virus biology.organism_classification medicine.disease 030104 developmental biology Increased risk Viral infection lcsh:Q Brazil Demography |
Zdroj: | Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2020) Scientific Reports |
ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
Popis: | Despite all the research done on the first Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, it was only after the Brazilian epidemic that the Congenital Zika Syndrome was described. This was made possible due to the large number of babies born with microcephaly in the Northeast region (NE) in a narrow time. We hypothesize that the fivefold difference in the rate of microcephalic neonates between the NE and other regions is partially an effect of the population prior immunity against Dengue viruses (DENV), that cross-react with ZIKV. In this ecological study, we analysed the interaction between dengue fever epidemics from 2001 to 2014 and the 2015/2016 microcephaly epidemic in 400 microregions in Brazil using random-effects models under a Bayesian approach. The estimated effect of the time lag between the most recent large dengue epidemic (>400/100,000 inhabitants) and the microcephaly epidemic ranged from protection (up to 6 years prior) to an increased risk (from 7 to 12 years). This sustained window of protection, larger than described in previous longitudinal studies, is possibly an effect of herd immunity and of multiple exposures to DENV that could boost immunity. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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