Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis
| Autor: | Andreas Benedictow, Daniel Fjærtoft, Ole Løfsnæs |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Macroeconomics
Dutch disease Economics and Econometrics Monetary policy jel:C51 jel:E52 jel:E63 Crowding out Fiscal policy Econometric model chemistry.chemical_compound chemistry jel:E17 Russia macro econometric model oil price dependency fiscal and monetary policy Sovereign wealth fund jel:Q43 Economics Petroleum Macro health care economics and organizations |
| Popis: | A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is tailored to analyze the effects of changes in the oil price and alternative fiscal policies. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant economic growth capabilities in the absence of oil price growth. A higher oil price not only leads to higher economic growth and savings in the sovereign wealth fund, but also induces a rupture in the Russian economy. Public spending and household spending increase while the traditional export industries suffer from real appreciation, in line with the Dutch disease hypothesis. We also show that alternative policies for spending of the petroleum income may have considerable consequences for economic growth, the degree of crowding out of traditional export industries and wealth accumulation in the fund. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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