Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony

Autor: Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Simon Cauchemez, Mikhail Churakov, Henrik Salje
Přispěvatelé: Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Recherches Translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses endémiques er émergentes (TransVIHMI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Yaoundé I-Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Harvard Medical School [Boston] (HMS), Boston Children's Hospital, University of Oxford, MC and SC received financial support from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences MIDAS grant 1U01GM110721-01. SC also acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund, the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (Grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID) and the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005). CJVA was supported by a fellowship from IRD and the Labex EpiGenMed/University of Montpellier, via the National Research Agency, Programme for Future Investment ANR-10-LABX-12-01. MUGK is supported by The Branco Weiss Fellowship - Society in Science, administered by the ETH Zurich and acknowledges funding from a Training Grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD040128) and the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health (R01LM010812, R01LM011965). HS was supported by the European Research Council (804744)., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), ANR-10-LABX-0012,EpiGenMed,From Genome and Epigenome to Molecular Medicine: turning new paradigms in biology into the therapeutic strategies of tomorrow(2010), Limouzin, Cécile, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Laboratoires d'excellence - From Genome and Epigenome to Molecular Medicine: turning new paradigms in biology into the therapeutic strategies of tomorrow - - EpiGenMed2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0012 - LABX - VALID, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Yaoundé I-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1), University of Oxford [Oxford], Churakov, Mikhail [0000-0001-9707-6885], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Recherches Translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses endémiques et émergentes (TransVIHMI)
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
0301 basic medicine
Viral Diseases
Periodicity
Spatial Epidemiology
Mosquito Control
MESH: Periodicity
Disease occurrence
Epidemiology
RC955-962
Social Sciences
MESH: Dengue
Geographical locations
Dengue Fever
MESH: Linear Models
Dengue fever
Dengue
0302 clinical medicine
[MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
Medicine and Health Sciences
Traveling wave
Case Series
Acre
Socioeconomics
MESH: Travel
[MATH.MATH-ST] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]
MESH: Mosquito Control
Travel
0303 health sciences
Geography
Spatial structure
Physics
Spatial epidemiology
3. Good health
Mosquito control
Infectious Diseases
Research Design
Physical Sciences
Viruses
Seasons
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Brazil
Research Article
Neglected Tropical Diseases
Clinical Research Design
030231 tropical medicine
Human Geography
Research and Analysis Methods
03 medical and health sciences
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
MESH: Spatio-Temporal Analysis
parasitic diseases
medicine
Humans
Epidemics
MESH: Epidemics
030304 developmental biology
Traveling Waves
MESH: Humans
Organisms
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Biology and Life Sciences
South America
Seasonality
Tropical Diseases
medicine.disease
030104 developmental biology
Vector (epidemiology)
Earth Sciences
Waves
Linear Models
Spatial ecology
Human Mobility
People and places
MESH: Brazil
MESH: Seasons
Arboviruses
Zdroj: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 4, p e0007012 (2019)
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2019, 13 (4), pp.e0007012. ⟨10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012⟩
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, 2019, 13 (4), pp.e0007012. ⟨10.1371/journal.pntd.0007012⟩
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
ISSN: 1935-2727
1935-2735
DOI: 10.1101/475335
Popis: Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years. Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterise the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period. We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence. This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses.
Author summary In this paper we studied the synchronization of dengue epidemics in Brazilian regions. We found that a typical dengue season in Brazil can be described as a wave travelling from the western part of the country towards the east, with the exception of the two most northern equatorial states that experienced inconsistent seasonality of dengue epidemics. We found that the spatial structure of dengue cases is driven by both climate and human mobility patterns. In particular, precipitation was the most important factor for the seasonality of dengue at finer spatial resolutions. Our findings increase our understanding of large scale dengue patterns and could be used to enhance national control programs against dengue and other arboviruses.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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