Climate Change Impacts on Temperature and Chill Unit Trends for Apple (Malus domestica) Production in Ceres, South Africa
| Autor: | Abraham Stephanus Steyn, Phumudzo Charles Tharaga, Gesine Maria Coetzer |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
Atmospheric Science Malus Utah chill unit model 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Yield (finance) Climate change Atmospheric model Environmental Science (miscellaneous) climate model 01 natural sciences Unit (housing) Meteorology. Climatology Production (economics) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences daily positive biology temperature trends biology.organism_classification Deciduous apple (Malus domestica) Environmental science Climate model Physical geography QC851-999 010606 plant biology & botany |
| Zdroj: | Atmosphere Volume 12 Issue 6 Atmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 740, p 740 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2073-4433 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/atmos12060740 |
| Popis: | Climate is an essential part of crop production, determining the suitability of a given region for deciduous fruit products such as apples (Malus domestica). It influences the yield and quality of fruits. There is strong evidence of global and regional-scale climate change since the advent of the industrial era. In South Africa, mean surface temperatures have revealed a warming trend over the last century. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on temperature and chill unit trends for apple production in Ceres, South Africa. The daily positive Utah chill units (DPCU) model was used as frequent high temperatures can lead to a high negation volume. Historically observed (1981–2010) and future projected (2011–2100) temperatures were obtained from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and three ensemble members of the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM), respectively. The latter employed the RCP8.5 pathway. Linear trends were calculated for temperature and accumulated PCUs for the historical base period. The probability of accumulating specific threshold PCU values for both historical and future periods was assessed from cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). The historical change in minimum temperatures showed no significant trend. Ceres revealed a warming trend in maximum temperatures over the historical period. By the 2080s, the probability of not exceeding a threshold of 1600 PCUs was exceptionally high for all ensemble members. Future projections showed a decline in the accumulated PCUs of 2–5% by the 2020s, 7–17% by the 2050s, and 20–34% towards the end of the 20th century. Based on these results, it is clear that winter chill units are negatively influenced by climate change. The loss in yield and fruit quality of apples due to climate change can negatively impact the export market, leading to significant economic losses for apple production in the Ceres area. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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