Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan
| Autor: | Stanislav E. Shmelev, Tobias Schnitzler, Tamara Tazhibayeva, Irina A. Shmeleva, Svetlana Polyakova, Galina Turulina, Vitaliy Salnikov |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Asia
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Yield (finance) 0208 environmental biotechnology Geography Planning and Development Climate change TJ807-830 02 engineering and technology Management Monitoring Policy and Law TD194-195 01 natural sciences Renewable energy sources GE1-350 Autoregressive integrated moving average Precipitation 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Food security Environmental effects of industries and plants Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Crop yield econometric modelling food security sustainable development goals Arid Kazakhstan 020801 environmental engineering Environmental sciences climate change Climatology Environmental science Teleconnection |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability Volume 13 Issue 15 Sustainability, Vol 13, Iss 8583, p 8583 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su13158583 |
| Popis: | In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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