Understanding the impact of correlation within pair‐bonds on Cormack–Jolly–Seber models
| Autor: | Wendell O. Challenger, Alexandru M. Draghici, Simon J. Bonner |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
pair‐bonds Population correlated fates Deviance (statistics) 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences 03 medical and health sciences Overdispersion Statistics Range (statistics) education Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematics QH540-549.5 Original Research 030304 developmental biology Nature and Landscape Conservation Statistical hypothesis testing Mathematics Variance inflation factor goodness‐of‐fit testing 0303 health sciences education.field_of_study Ecology overdispersion variance inflation factors nested models Cormack–Jolly–Seber models Standard error Likelihood-ratio test |
| Zdroj: | Ecology and Evolution, Vol 11, Iss 11, Pp 5966-5984 (2021) Ecology and Evolution |
| ISSN: | 2045-7758 |
| Popis: | The Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model and its extensions have been widely applied to the study of animal survival rates in open populations. The model assumes that individuals within the population of interest have independent fates. It is, however, highly unlikely that a pair of animals which have formed a long‐term pairing have dissociated fates.We examine a model extension which allows animals who have formed a pair‐bond to have correlated survival and recapture fates. Using the proposed extension to generate data, we conduct a simulation study exploring the impact that correlated fate data has on inference from the CJS model. We compute Monte Carlo estimates for the bias, range, and standard errors of the parameters of the CJS model for data with varying degrees of survival correlation between mates. Furthermore, we study the likelihood ratio test of sex effects within the CJS model by simulating densities of the deviance. Finally, we estimate the variance inflation factor c^ for CJS models that incorporate sex‐specific heterogeneity.Our study shows that correlated fates between mated animals may result in underestimated standard errors for parsimonious models, significantly deflated likelihood ratio test statistics, and underestimated values of c^ for models taking sex‐specific effects into account.Underestimated standard errors can result in lowered coverage of confidence intervals. Moreover, deflated test statistics will provide overly conservative test results. Finally, underestimated variance inflation factors can lead researchers to make incorrect conclusions about the level of extra‐binomial variation present in their data. We present an extension to the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model that allows animals who have formed a pair‐bond to have correlated survival and recapture fates. Using the proposed extension to generate data, we conduct a simulation study exploring the impact that correlated fate data has on inference from the CJS model. Our study shows that correlated fates between mated animals may result in underestimated standard errors for parsimonious models, significantly deflated likelihood ratio test statistics, and underestimated values of ĉ for models taking sex‐specific effects into account. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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