COVID19 BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER AND ASSESSMENT OF INITIAL SUPPRESSION POLICIES IN COSTA RICA
| Autor: | Mariel D. Friberg, María L Avila-Aguero, Lisbeth Amarilis Hurtado, Luis Fernando Chaves, Melissa Ramírez Rojas, Rodrigo Marín Rodríguez |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Panama
medicine.medical_specialty business.industry Public health Applied Mathematics 030231 tropical medicine Distribution (economics) law.invention 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Geography Transmission (mechanics) law Modeling and Simulation Modelling and Simulation Pandemic medicine 030212 general & internal medicine business China Basic reproduction number Serial interval Demography |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena |
| DOI: | 10.13140/rg.2.2.26346.26566/1 |
| Popis: | SARS-COV-2 is the most recent from a series of emerging pathogens stressing national health systems. Initially restricted to Hubei province in China, COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-COV-2 has become pandemic, reaching almost every nation on our planet. Here, we present an estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) for this disease based on confirmed cases recorded during the initial 30 days of transmission. Based on local transmission data for the six initial days of transmission, we estimated (mean ± SE) R0 = 2.58 ± 2.43. R0 was reduced by up to 56% to R0 = 1.12 ± 0.02 following suppression measures in place by April 4th, 2020. Independent estimates for the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) based on the serial interval distribution estimated for China showed that after 30 days, Rt decreased reaching a value of 0.914 ± 0.104 on April 4th, 2020. In this study, we also describe the suppression strategies in place in Costa Rica and compare their impacts with those implemented in Panamá and Uruguay, provided these three middle-income countries have similar demographic and economic indicators. However, these three countries have structurally different health systems and have resorted to different suppression measures against COVID-19. We compare the early epidemic growth curves in the three countries using an exponential deceleration model. We found the lowest epidemic growth rate in Costa Rica, followed by Panamá and then Uruguay, while the highest deceleration was observed in Uruguay, followed by Costa Rica and Panamá. We discuss how the unified, universal healthcare system of Costa Rica has been vital to successfully manage the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic and call for the developments of precision public health tools to further improve epidemic health surveillance in Costa Rica. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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