Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits

Autor: R. Constantinescu, J. T. White, C. B. Connor, A. Hopulele‐Gligor, S. Charbonnier, J.‐C. Thouret, J. M. Lindsay, D. Bertin
Přispěvatelé: Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters
Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49, ⟨10.1029/2021GL097425⟩
ISSN: 0094-8276
1944-8007
Popis: International audience; Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78-1.4 × 1011 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5-16.5 km, and plume height 8-35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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