How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal

Autor: Paulo Diogo, Sofia Simoes, Filipa Amorim, Babar Mujtaba, Sílvia Carvalho, Edi Assoumou, Patrícia Fortes, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Valentina Sessa, Gildas Siggini
Přispěvatelé: Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées (CMA), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Observation, Impacts, Énergie (O.I.E.)
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Natural resource economics
020209 energy
Climate change
02 engineering and technology
7. Clean energy
01 natural sciences
Renewable energy sources
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Carbon neutrality
Power systems
Electric power system
[STAT.ML]Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML]
11. Sustainability
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Climate variability
ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Hydropower
Power system
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Civil and Structural Engineering
business.industry
Mechanical Engineering
[SDE.PLT]Environmental Sciences/domain_sde.plt
Photovoltaic system
Building and Construction
Energy planning
Pollution
Offshore wind power
General Energy
13. Climate action
[SDE]Environmental Sciences
Environmental science
Electricity
business
[MATH.APPL]Mathematics [math]/domain_math.appl
Zdroj: Energy
Energy, Elsevier, 2022, 239, pp.122106. ⟨10.1016/j.energy.2021.122106⟩
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instacron:RCAAP
ISSN: 0360-5442
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122106
Popis: Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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