Epidemiological dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the United States and implications for acute flaccid myelitis
Autor: | Lindsay Meyers, Jeremy Farrar, Sang Woo Park, Kevin Messacar, Margarita Pons-Salort, Bryan T. Grenfell, Camille V Cook |
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Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
medicine.medical_specialty Myelitis Enterovirus D Models Biological 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Spatio-Temporal Analysis Environmental health Pandemic Epidemiology medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Enterovirus D Human business.industry Outbreak General Medicine Neuromuscular Diseases medicine.disease Acute flaccid myelitis United States 030104 developmental biology Epidemiological Monitoring Central Nervous System Viral Diseases Disease Susceptibility business Enterovirus D68 |
Zdroj: | Science translational medicine. 13(584) |
ISSN: | 1946-6242 |
Popis: | Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) recently emerged in the United States as a rare but serious neurological condition since 2012. Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is thought to be a main causative agent, but limited surveillance of EV-D68 in the United States has hampered the ability to assess their causal relationship. Using surveillance data from the BioFire Syndromic Trends epidemiology network in the United States from January 2014 to September 2019, we characterized the epidemiological dynamics of EV-D68 and found latitudinal gradient in the mean timing of EV-D68 cases, which are likely climate driven. We also demonstrated a strong spatiotemporal association of EV-D68 with AFM. Mathematical modeling suggested that the recent dominant biennial cycles of EV-D68 dynamics may not be stable. Nonetheless, we predicted that a major EV-D68 outbreak, and hence an AFM outbreak, would have still been possible in 2020 under normal epidemiological conditions. Nonpharmaceutical intervention efforts due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are likely to have reduced the sizes of EV-D68 and AFM outbreaks in 2020, illustrating the broader epidemiological impact of the pandemic. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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