Non-Linear fitting of Sigmoidal Growth Curves to predict a maximum limit to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States
| Autor: | Carlos Maximiliano Dutra |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: | |
| DOI: | 10.1101/2020.04.22.20074898 |
| Popis: | In the present work is used non-linear fitting of the “Gompert” and “Logistic” growth models to the number of total COVID-19 cases from the United States as a country and individually by states. The methodology allowed us to estimate that the maximum limit for the total number of cases of COVID-19 patients such as those registered with the World Health Organization will be approximately one million and one hundred thousand cases to the United States. Up to 04/19/20 the models indicate that United States reached 70% of this maximum number of “total cases” and the United States will reach 95% of this limit by 05/14/2020. The application of the nonlinear fitting of growth curves to the individual data of each American state showed that only 25% of them did not reach, on 04/19/20, the percentage of 59% of the maximum limit of “total cases” and that 17 of the 50 states still will not have reached 95% of that limit on 05/14/20. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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