Episode Rules Mining Algorithm for Distant Event Prediction

Autor: Anne Boyer, Lina Fahed, Armelle Brun
Přispěvatelé: Knowledge Information and Web Intelligence (KIWI), Department of Complex Systems, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics (LORIA - AIS), Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications (LORIA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications (LORIA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire Lorrain de Recherche en Informatique et ses Applications (LORIA), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Brun, Armelle
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: [Research Report] 2014
KDIR-7th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management.
KDIR-7th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management., Oct 2014, rome, Italy
KDIR
Popis: This paper focuses on event prediction in an event sequence, where we aim at predicting distant events. We propose an algorithm that mines episode rules, which are minimal and have a consequent temporally distant from the antecedent. As traditional algorithms are not able to mine directly rules with such characteristics, we propose an original way to mine these rules. Our algorithm, which has a complexity similar to that of state of the art algorithms, determines the consequent of an episode rule at an early stage in the mining process, it applies a span constraint on the antecedent and a gap constraint between the antecedent and the consequent. A new confidence measure, the temporal confidence, is proposed, which evaluates the confidence of a rule in relation to the predefined gap. The algorithm is validated on an event sequence of social networks messages. We show that minimal rules with a distant consequent are actually formed and that they can be used to accurately predict distant events.
Databáze: OpenAIRE