Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding

Autor: Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, François Bachoc
Přispěvatelé: Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse UMR5219 (IMT), Université Toulouse Capitole (UT Capitole), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-16-CE04-0011,RISCOPE,Système d'alerte de submersion côtière centré sur le risque(2016)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 22 (10), pp.3167-3182. ⟨10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022⟩
Rencontres MEXICO (MÉTHODES POUR L'EXPLORATION INFORMATIQUE DES MODÈLES COMPLEXES) 2022
Rencontres MEXICO (MÉTHODES POUR L'EXPLORATION INFORMATIQUE DES MODÈLES COMPLEXES) 2022, Nov 2022, Cestas Gazinet, France
ISSN: 1561-8633
1684-9981
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022⟩
Popis: International audience; In this communication, we aim at getting a deep insight into the role of coastal flooding drivers is of high interest for the planning of adaptation strategies for future climate conditions. Based on the methods described in Rohmer et al. (202), NHESS, we measure the contributions of the offshore forcing conditions (wave/wind characteristics, still water level and sea level rise (SLR) projected up to 2200) to the occurrence of a flooding event at Gâvres town on the French Atlantic coast in a macrotidal environment. This procedure faces, however, two major difficulties, namely (1) the high computational time costs of the hydrodynamic numerical simulations; (2) the statistical dependence between the forcing conditions. By applying a Monte-Carlo-based approach combined with multivariate extreme value analysis, our study proposes a procedure to overcome both difficulties by calculating sensitivity measures dedicated to dependent input variables (named Shapley effects) using Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. On this basis, our results show the increasing influence of SLR over time, and a small-to-moderate contribution of wave/wind characteristics, or even negligible importance in the very long term (beyond 2100). These results were discussed in relation to our modelling choices, in particular the climate change scenario, as well as the uncertainties of the estimation procedure (Monte Carlo sampling and GP error).
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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