Incidence trends and risk prediction nomogram of metachronous second primary lung cancer in lung cancer survivors

Autor: Wen Xin Li, Zhigang Hu, Yu Shu Ruan, Fan Jun Zeng
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Male
Oncology
Lung Neoplasms
Epidemiology
medicine.medical_treatment
Cancer Treatment
Logistic regression
Lung and Intrathoracic Tumors
Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
0302 clinical medicine
Cancer Survivors
Adenocarcinomas
Epidemiology of cancer
Medicine and Health Sciences
030212 general & internal medicine
Aged
80 and over
education.field_of_study
Multidisciplinary
Incidence
Cancer Risk Factors
Incidence (epidemiology)
Statistics
Neoplasms
Second Primary
Middle Aged
030220 oncology & carcinogenesis
Physical Sciences
Regression Analysis
Medicine
Female
Anatomy
Risk assessment
Research Article
Clinical Oncology
medicine.medical_specialty
Histology
Science
Population
Radiation Therapy
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk Assessment
Carcinomas
03 medical and health sciences
Diagnostic Medicine
Internal medicine
Cancer Detection and Diagnosis
medicine
Humans
Statistical Methods
Lung cancer
education
Aged
business.industry
Biology and Life Sciences
Cancers and Neoplasms
Nomogram
medicine.disease
Radiation therapy
Nomograms
Medical Risk Factors
Clinical Medicine
business
Mathematics
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 13, Iss 12, p e0209002 (2018)
PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
Popis: Background This study was designed to estimate the trends in 5-year incidence of metachronous second primary lung cancer(SPLC) and to establish a risk prediction model to identify candidates who were at high risk of developing metachronous SPLC. Methods Incidence data between 2004 and 2007 were obtained from SEER database, including 42453 participants who survived ≥ 2 years after the initial diagnosis of lung cancer. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the 5-year incidence rates of metachronous SPLC per 100 000 population. Related risk factors of the survivors who developed MSPLC during five years were identified through logistic regression analysis, followed by establishment of risk prediction nomogram. Discrimination (C-index), calibration and decision analysis were further performed to assess the validation and clinical net benefit of risk prediction nomogram. Results A total of 1412 survivors with lung cancer developed MSPLC during five years, with 3546 per 100 000 population of age-adjusted 5-year incidence. Age, histology, tumor stage, and radiation were recognized as risk factors of metachronous SPLC, as indicated by logistic regression analysis. The risk prediction nomogram of metachronous SPLC harbored moderate discrimination(C-index = 0.67) and good calibration, with the risk of 0.01 to 0.11.The decision curve analysis showed that clinical net benefit of this risk prediction nomogram in a range of risk thresholds (0.01 to 0.06) was higher compared to all-screening or no-screening strategies. Conclusions Collectively, the cumulative risk of metachronous SPLC of the survivors increased over time. The risk prediction nomogram was available to select high-risk survivors who should regularly undergo computed tomography screening.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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