Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios
| Autor: | Jaime Nieto, Luis Javier Miguel González, Ignacio De Blas Sanz, Óscar Carpintero, Jaime Nieto Vega |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
020209 energy
Política climática 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law 7. Clean energy 01 natural sciences Energy policy 12. Responsible consumption Green growth 11. Sustainability Degrowth 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics 5312.05 Energía Economic impact analysis 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Energy mix Post-growth Redistribution (cultural anthropology) Environmental economics General Energy 13. Climate action Climate policy Sustainability Política energética |
| Zdroj: | Energy Policy UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid instname |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111090 |
| Popis: | Producción Científica Integrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module within a broader system dynamics model (MEDEAS) has been developed. The model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends; Green Growth (GG), undertaking the low-carbon transition according to the Paris Agreement set of policies and with high GDP growth standards; and Post-Growth (PG), testing the sustainability transition under a GDP non-growth/degrowth approach. The results reveal the conflict between economic growth, climate policy and the sustainability of resources. Whereas a BAU approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals, a GG view would not only face the downsizing of economic output, but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 °C objective. The success of the PG approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution. European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287) Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-85110-R) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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