Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance: a national prospective cohort study

Autor: Lazaro M. Mwandigha, Lewis William Paton, John C. McLachlan, Adetayo Kasim, Paul A. Tiffin, Hannah Hesselgreaves, Gabrielle M. Finn
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
Male
Students
Medical
020205 medical informatics
02 engineering and technology
Cohort Studies
0302 clinical medicine
Aptitude testing
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Medicine
School Admission Criteria
030212 general & internal medicine
Prospective Studies
Prospective cohort study
X300
Schools
Medical
media_common
INTELLECTUAL APTITUDE-TESTS
Medicine(all)
Undergraduate performance
MCAT
4. Education
General Medicine
WIDENING ACCESS
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Test (assessment)
Scale (social sciences)
Aptitude
Female
Clinical Competence
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
BEHAVIOR
Research Article
Education
Medical
Undergraduate
Predictive validity
media_common.quotation_subject
INDIRECT RANGE RESTRICTION
03 medical and health sciences
MULTIPLE IMPUTATION
Medicine
General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
Humans
METAANALYSIS
EDUCATIONAL-ATTAINMENT
Medical education
Science & Technology
Receiver operating characteristic
LICENSING EXAMINATIONS
STUDENT SELECTION
business.industry
Reproducibility of Results
Medical selection
A300
Educational attainment
United Kingdom
B900
Aptitude Tests
Observational study
Educational Measurement
business
Forecasting
Zdroj: BMC Medicine
BMC medicine, 2016, Vol.14(1), pp.140 [Peer Reviewed Journal]
Tiffin, P A, Mwandigha, L M, Paton, L W, Hesselgreaves, H, McLachlan, J C, Finn, G M & Kasim, A S 2016, ' Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance : a national prospective cohort study ', BMC Medicine, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 1-19 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-016-0682-7
ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-016-0682-7
Popis: Background The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) has been shown to have a modest but statistically significant ability to predict aspects of academic performance throughout medical school. Previously, this ability has been shown to be incremental to conventional measures of educational performance for the first year of medical school. This study evaluates whether this predictive ability extends throughout the whole of undergraduate medical study and explores the potential impact of using the test as a selection screening tool. Methods This was an observational prospective study, linking UKCAT scores, prior educational attainment and sociodemographic variables with subsequent academic outcomes during the 5 years of UK medical undergraduate training. The participants were 6812 entrants to UK medical schools in 2007–8 using the UKCAT. The main outcome was academic performance at each year of medical school. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was also conducted, treating the UKCAT as a screening test for a negative academic outcome (failing at least 1 year at first attempt). Results All four of the UKCAT scale scores significantly predicted performance in theory- and skills-based exams. After adjustment for prior educational achievement, the UKCAT scale scores remained significantly predictive for most years. Findings from the ROC analysis suggested that, if used as a sole screening test, with the mean applicant UKCAT score as the cut-off, the test could be used to reject candidates at high risk of failing at least 1 year at first attempt. However, the ‘number needed to reject’ value would be high (at 1.18), with roughly one candidate who would have been likely to pass all years at first sitting being rejected for every higher risk candidate potentially declined entry on this basis. Conclusions The UKCAT scores demonstrate a statistically significant but modest degree of incremental predictive validity throughout undergraduate training. Whilst the UKCAT could be considered a fairly crude screening tool for future academic performance, it may offer added value when used in conjunction with other selection measures. Future work should focus on the optimum role of such tests within the selection process and the prediction of post-graduate performance. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0682-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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