Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment
| Autor: | Allison B. Marquardt Collow, Paul A. Ullrich, E. J. Shearer, Elizabeth McClenny, Colin M. Zarzycki, Alan M. Rhoades, Huanping Huang, B. Loring, Christine A. Shields, Yang Zhou, Jonathan J. Rutz, L. Ruby Leung, Héctor Inda Díaz, Kyle M. Nardi, Ashley E. Payne, F. Martin Ralph, Travis A. O'Brien, Irina Gorodetskaya, Chandan Sarangi, Michael Wehner, Bin Guan, Juan M. Lora, Ricardo Tomé, Alexandre M. Ramos |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
atmospheric river Meteorology extreme precipitation CMIP Atmospheric river Tracking (particle physics) Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience Atmospheric Sciences Climate Action climate change Geophysics Space and Planetary Science Tier 2 network ARTMIP Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental science Climate model |
| Zdroj: | Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR, vol 127, iss 6 |
| ISSN: | 2169-897X |
| Popis: | The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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