Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management: A case study in polders of Southwest Bangladesh
Autor: | Wil A. H. Thissen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Umme Kulsum, M. Shah Alam Khan, Jos Timmermans |
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Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
Delta
Bangladesh 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Geography Planning and Development Uncertainty Polders Plan (drawing) 010501 environmental sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law Livelihood 01 natural sciences Community Livelihood Adaptation Adaptive Delta Management Adaptive planning Business Policy outcomes Adaptation (computer science) Cropping Environmental planning Futures contract 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
Zdroj: | Environmental Science & Policy, 119 |
ISSN: | 1462-9011 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.004 |
Popis: | To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods of local communities (Community Livelihood Adaptation; CLA), especially in an agriculture-oriented society like Bangladesh. For example, while triple rice cropping might be evaluated as a robust strategy in all futures considered, its success eventually depends on whether farmers’ will actually make that choice, which is deeply uncertain. In this paper, we use literature review, insights from interviews and field observations to examine how the uncertainty in CLA impacts (adaptive) delta management. We study two historical cases of livelihood adaptation of farmer communities confronted with salinization and waterlogging in the polders of southwest Bangladesh since the 1960s. We conclude that historically the uncertainty about CLA in polders has been ignored in the development of policy plans, leading to the failure of anticipated policy outcomes. We recommend planners in Bangladesh and other deltas worldwide to take account of CLA as uncertainty when developing long-term adaptive plans. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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