| Popis: |
The in-depth analysis and knowledge of the variation of weather-marine factors (tidal and wave heights, wind speeds) is a major challenge in understanding the physical processes of erosion and marine submersion on Ivorian coastal areas. Indeed, this coastal area has undergone several episodes of storms in particular in August 2011 and May 2014), which had negative impacts on environmental, socio-economic and human resources. For this purpose, an analysis of the data was carried out on the simultaneous variation of predicted tidal heights at the Port of Abidjan, by the SHOM, of wave heights and wind speeds, acquired by satellite altimetry by NOAA/PMEL during the period September 2009-February 2016. The objective is to carry out statistical simulations of extreme marine levels using the generalized method of extreme values, using the software R. The threshold values recorded are 1.01 m, 1.87 m and 5 m/s for tidal heights, waves and wind speeds respectively. Extreme heights range from 1.01 to 1.17 for the tide, 1.87 to 2.8 m for the waves, and 5 and 9.09 m/s for the wind speeds, with a 95% confidence bands. Storms on the Port-Bouet coast in 2011 and 2014 would have caused flooding areas of 0.72 sq.m for a 10-year return period. But from a 20-years return period, 0.9 sq.m of the coast are flooded, including the neighborhood Derrière Warff |
