Climatic Drivers Of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics In French Guiana, 2006–2010

Autor: A. Bouix, Luisiane Carvalho, F. Eltges, M.A. Miller, C. Viboud, Philippe Quénel, Philippe Dussart, Séverine Matheus, Aba Mahamat
Přispěvatelé: National Institutes of Health [Bethesda] (NIH), Centre Hospitalier Andrée Rosemon [Cayenne, Guyane Française], Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG), Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), GP Sentinel Network on Influenza Surveillance [Cayenne, Guyane française], Cellule de l'Institut de Veille Sanitaire en régions Antilles Guyane, Agence Régionale de la Santé [Cayenne, Guyane française] (ARS), This research was conducted in the context of the Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study (MISMS), an on-going international collaborative effort to understand influenza epidemiological and evolutionary patterns, led by the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. Funding for this project comes from the Office of Global Affairs' International Influenza Unit in the Office of the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. This work has benefited from an 'Investissement d'Avenir' grant managed by Agence Nationale de la Recherche (CEBA, ref. ANR-10-LABX-0025)., ANR-10-LABX-0025,CEBA,CEnter of the study of Biodiversity in Amazonia(2010)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2013
Předmět:
Microbiology (medical)
Wet season
Rainfall
Veterinary medicine
Climate
Orthomyxoviridae
Influenza epidemics
Biology
ARIMA
Article
Seasonal influenza
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Tropical
MESH: French Guiana
MESH: Humidity
medicine
Times-series
030212 general & internal medicine
MESH: Incidence
030304 developmental biology
MESH: Orthomyxoviridae
0303 health sciences
MESH: Humans
Incidence (epidemiology)
MESH: Influenza
Human
virus diseases
Humidity
Dynamic regression
Influenza transmission
Seasonality
medicine.disease
biology.organism_classification
MESH: Climate
Influenza
MESH: Nasopharynx
Infectious Diseases
[SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology
MESH: Rain
[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
MESH: Seasons
Zdroj: Journal of Infection
Journal of Infection, WB Saunders, 2013, 67 (2), pp.141-147. ⟨10.1016/j.jinf.2013.03.018⟩
ISSN: 0163-4453
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2013.03.018⟩
Popis: International audience; ObjectivesInfluenza seasonality remains poorly studied in Equatorial regions. Here we assessed the seasonal characteristics and environmental drivers of influenza epidemics in French Guiana, where influenza surveillance was established in 2006.MethodsSentinel GPs monitored weekly incidence of Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) from January 2006 through December 2010 and collected nasopharyngeal specimens from patients for virological confirmation. Times series analysis was used to investigate relationship between ILI and climatic parameters (rainfall and specific humidity).ResultsBased on 1533 viruses identified during the study period, we observed marked seasonality in the circulation of influenza virus in the pre-pandemic period, followed by year-round activity in the post-pandemic period, with a peak in the rainy season. ILI incidence showed seasonal autoregressive variation based on ARIMA analysis. Multivariate dynamic regression revealed that a 1 mm increase of rainfall resulted in an increase of 0.33% in ILI incidence one week later, adjusting for specific humidity (SH). Conversely, an increase of 1 g/kg of SH resulted in a decrease of 11% in ILI incidence 3 weeks later, adjusting for rainfall.ConclusionsIncreased rainfall and low levels of specific humidity favour influenza transmission in French Guiana.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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