Dynamic modelling of dengue epidemics in function of available enthalpy and rainfall
| Autor: | Hugo Abi Karam, José Luis Flores Rojas, Augusto José Pereira Filho, Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
education.field_of_study
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences biology business.industry 030231 tropical medicine Population Outbreak Aedes aegypti Dynamic modelling biology.organism_classification medicine.disease 01 natural sciences Virology Dengue fever 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Environmental health RIO DE JANEIRO Medicine business education 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Repositório Institucional da USP (Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual) Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
| Popis: | In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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