On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
| Autor: | S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, D A Stone, D M Mitchell, S Rosier, A D King, Y T E Lo, J Pastor-Paz, D Frame, M Wehner |
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| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
0303 health sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health attribution 01 natural sciences Climate Action 03 medical and health sciences 13. Climate action climate and weather extremes Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Climate change Generic health relevance impacts 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science |
| Zdroj: | Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S E, Stone, D A, Mitchell, D M, Rosier, S, King, A D, Lo, Y T E, Pastor-Paz, J, Frame, D & Wehner, M 2022, ' On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change ', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 17, no. 2, 024009 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8 Environmental Research Letters, vol 17, iss 2 |
| ISSN: | 1748-9326 |
| Popis: | Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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