Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons
| Autor: | R Milovan Pecelj, Yaroslav Vyklyuk, Milan Radovanović, B Slavica Malinovic-Milicevic, M Dejana Jakovljevic |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
temperature of protons
Meteorology Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment lcsh:Mechanical engineering and machinery 020209 energy forecast Flow (psychology) Time evolution 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Fractal dimension Degree (temperature) Term (time) Solar wind 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering forest fires ANFIS models Environmental science lcsh:TJ1-1570 Sensitivity (control systems) USA Randomness 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Thermal Science Thermal Science, Vol 19, Iss suppl. 2, Pp 437-444 (2015) |
| ISSN: | 2334-7163 0354-9836 |
| Popis: | The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of protons, i.e. temperature of the particles that are coming from the sun and forest fires in the USA. For determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input (temperature of protons) and output parameters (number of forest fires), the R/S analysis is conducted. The analysis of fractal dimension provides us an opportunity to compare self-similar processes in the influx of protons and the time series of forest fires flashes. Therefore we developed and conducted the sensitivity analysis of model based on hybrid neural networks ANFIS. As the calculations showed, only 16% of the real forest flashes cannot be predicted by the model. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47007] |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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