Impacts of Global Climate Change on Duration of Logging Season in Siberian Boreal Forests
| Autor: | Anton I. Pyzhev, Anna V. Chugunkova |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
wood industry
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Logging Global warming Taiga Mann–Kendall test global climate change Forestry lcsh:QK900-989 010501 environmental sciences ARIMA modeling 01 natural sciences logging season duration Russia Siberia forest economics Frost Period (geology) lcsh:Plant ecology Environmental science Physical geography Duration (project management) Wood industry Economic potential 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Forests, Vol 11, Iss 756, p 756 (2020) Forests Volume 11 Issue 7 |
| ISSN: | 1999-4907 |
| Popis: | In Siberia, most boreal forests are located in an area with relatively moist forest soils, which makes logging activities possible exclusively during the frost period with a permanent snow cover and stable sub-zero temperatures. As the global climate is experiencing a trend towards warming, it is reasonable to suppose that the duration of the logging season might shorten over time, influencing the economic potential of Siberian forests. To test this hypothesis, we created a concept for calculating the duration of the logging season, taking into account the economic and climatic peculiarities of doing forest business in these territories. Using the long-run daily-observed climatic data, we calculated the duration of the logging season for eight representative stations in Krasnoyarsk Krai (Yeniseysk, Boguchany, Achinsk, and Minusinsk) and Irkutsk Oblast (Bratsk, Kirensk, Tulun, and Yerbogachen) in 1966&ndash 2018. We found strong evidence of logging season duration shortening for almost all considered stations, with an uneven effect on the start and end boundaries of the season. Climate warming has almost no effect on the start date of the season in winter, but it significantly shifts the boundaries of the season end in spring. Using the autoregressive-integrated-moving average modeling (ARIMA) models, we demonstrated that, in the near future, the trends of the gradual shortening of the logging season will hold for the most part of the considered stations. The most pronounced effect is observed for the Achinsk station, where the logging season will shorten from 148.4 ± 17.3 days during the historical sample (1966&ndash 2018) to 136.2 ± 30 days in 2028, which reflects global warming trend patterns. From an economic perspective, a shorter duration of the logging season means fewer wood stocks available for cutting, which would impact the ability of companies to enact their logging plans and lead them to suffer losses in the future. To avoid losses, Siberian forest firms will have to adapt to these changes by redefining their economic strategies in terms of intensifying logging operations. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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