Prediction of the effects of environmental factors towards COVID-19 outbreak using AI-based models
| Autor: | Umar Farouk Dalhat, M. B. Jibril, Muhammad Sani Gaya, R. A. Abdulkadir, Sani Isah Abba, A. N. Salihu, Khalid Mahmoud, A. G. Usman, Hatice Bebiş |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system
Information Systems and Management Variables Artificial neural network Mean squared error Correlation coefficient Calibration (statistics) Computer science media_common.quotation_subject COVID-19 Artificial intelligence models Artificial Intelligence Control and Systems Engineering Linear regression Statistics Environmental factors Electrical and Electronic Engineering Reliability (statistics) Multiple linear regression media_common |
| Popis: | The need for elucidating the effects of environmental factors in the determination of the novel corona virus (COVID-19) is very vital. This study is a methodological study to compare three different test models (1. Artificial neural networks (ANN), 2. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), 3. A linear classical model (MLR)) used to determine the relationship between COVID-19 spread and environmental factors (temperature, humidity and wind). These data were obtained from the studies (Pirouz, Haghshenas, Haghshenas, & Piro, 2020) with confirmed COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China, using temperature, humidity and wind as the independent variables. The measured and the predicted results were checked based on three different performance indices; Root mean square error (RMSE), determination coefficient (R2) and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that ANFIS and ANN are more promising over the classical MLR models having an average R-values of 0.90 in both calibration and verification stages. The findings indicated that ANFIS outperformed MLR and ANN. In addition, their performance skills boosted up to 25% and 9% respectively based on the determination coefficient for the prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan city of China. Overall, the results depict the reliability and ability of AI-based models (ANFIS and ANN) for the simulation of COVID-19 using the effects of various environmental variables. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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