Time series analysis of three centuries of childbearing and fertility process in Finland
| Autor: | El-Khorazaty Mn |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 1992 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Finnish Yearbook of Population Research |
| ISSN: | 1796-6191 1796-6183 |
| Popis: | The interlink among 3 models a childbearing model with only sets of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) the fertility-inhibiting indices of Bongaarts model and El-Khorazatys regression model was employed to study the fertility and childbearing process in Finland by using historical time series data on childbearing and fertility-inhibiting processes for the period 1722-2022. The results demonstrate that Finland passed through 3 demographic transitions. The 1st was mainly a nuptiality transition (1720-1760) while the 2nd was a nuptiality/childbearing transition (1770-1790) and the 3rd was essentially a childbearing transition (1910-1985). While the period until the late 18th century was characterized mainly by nuptiality transition the stabilization period between the late 18th century and the beginning of the 20th century corresponds to stage I of the childbearing transition characterization (CTC). In stage I nuptiality patterns were essentially stable both ages at first and last birth were high resulting in relatively short reproductive life spans (about 15 years) and fertility not as high when compared to todays developing countries. The 20th century childbearing experience until the mid 1970s corresponds to stage II of the CIC in which ages at last birth declined at a faster rate while ages at first birth increased slightly. Since the mid 1970s increases in both ages at first and last birth resulted in stable reproductive life spans of 6-8 years corresponding to stage III of the CTC. The shift to an older childbearing pattern in recent years is a consequence of the noticeable influence of change in crude marriage rates since the late 1950s when the CMR increased from only 7.2 in the years 1957-59 to almost 9 in the early 1970s before dropping to a low of 5.3 in the late 1980s. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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