Chaos-based forecast of sunspot cycle 24
| Autor: | I. J. Crosson, P.-M. Binder |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Sunspot Wolf number Ecology Meteorology Paleontology Soil Science Forestry Aquatic Science Solar cycle 24 Oceanography Solar physics CHAOS (operating system) Geophysics Transformation (function) Space and Planetary Science Geochemistry and Petrology Symmetric space Attractor Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Applied mathematics Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics. 114 |
| ISSN: | 0148-0227 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2008ja013859 |
| Popis: | [1] We forecast the maximum average Wolf number for both the recent sunspot cycles 22 and 23 and the forthcoming cycle 24 by combining attractor reconstruction techniques, a transformation of variables to a symmetric space, and a simple, yet effective, nonlinear prediction algorithm. For the earlier cycles, the results are quite successful. For the latter, we expect the peak of the cycle to occur in the first quarter of 2011 with Wolf number of 145 ± 7. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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