| Autor: |
Ryabtsev, Vladimir, Svechkarev, Valery, Rozin, Mikhail, Ivanov , Anton |
| Jazyk: |
ruština |
| Rok vydání: |
2019 |
| Předmět: |
|
| DOI: |
10.23683/2070-1403-2019-77-6-27-40 |
| Popis: |
For the purpose of analyzing the problematic aspects of geopolitical confrontation, the article shows the appropriateness of using the cognitive modeling apparatus. It is noted that the most common cognitive model used by an analyst as a generalized prototype or a “mental model” of geopolitical confrontation is a unary model in the form of a simple loop with positive feedback. It is shown that the model of geopolitical confrontation is a more complex image. Proneness to conflict forms a “knot” of integration of the causes of proneness to conflict and the decomposition of its consequences. The model ceases to be unary (single-loop) and is converted to a binary (double-loop) model. The level of self-determination of the geopolitical system in the model is determined by the increased degree of semantic and causal integration. The model retains the inner loop of geopolitical confrontation and is supplemented by the loop of involving extra-regional (external) “players”. In fact, external “players” in it are initiators of an active cyclically generated internal confrontation. Based on the study of the geopolitical phenomenon of “overlapping”, a ternary model with a cumulative loop has been developed for the regions of geopolitical confrontation in the Near and Middle East. The model demonstrates how “overlapping” subordinates the “problems of internal confrontation” to the interests and actions of external players and, further, transforms into a self-sufficient cumulative loop capable of unleashing a flywheel of acute conflicts with threatening force. The proposed model not only describes the interrelationships of various kinds of actors that form the geopolitical space, but also gives the analyst the opportunity to explore specific options for development of the situation. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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