Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil
Autor: | Eduardo Q. Marques, Andrea D A Castanho, Nathane Q. Costa, Stephanie A. Spera, Michael T. Coe, Ludmila Rattis, Marcia N. Macedo, Paulo M. Brando, Divino Silvério |
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Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
2. Zero hunger
0303 health sciences 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Agroforestry business.industry Vegetation 15. Life on land Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Adaptation strategies 01 natural sciences Arid Crop 03 medical and health sciences 13. Climate action Agriculture Environmental science Agricultural productivity Regional warming business Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Rate of growth |
Zdroj: | Nature Climate Change. 11:1098-1104 |
ISSN: | 1758-6798 1758-678X |
Popis: | Brazil’s leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during the early stages of crop development—a pattern observed in rainfed and irrigated areas alike. Although agricultural expansion and intensification have increased over time, dry–hot weather during drought events has slowed their rate of growth. Recent regional warming and drying already have pushed 28% of current agricultural lands out of their optimum climate space. We project that 51% of the region’s agriculture will move out of that climate space by 2030 and 74% by 2060. Although agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate. Soybean and maize yields in the Amazon-Cerrado region of Brazil are dependent on water from rain. Warming and drying will make the climate less suitable for agricultural production; changes have already moved 28% of croplands out of their optimum climate space. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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