The issue of global warming and changes in the runoff of Russian rivers

Autor: S. G. Dobrovolski
Rok vydání: 2007
Předmět:
Zdroj: Water Resources. 34:607-618
ISSN: 1608-344X
0097-8078
DOI: 10.1134/s0097807807060012
Popis: Maps of a series of characteristics were calculated and constructed for RF territory, including mean values of changes in runoff depths (evaluated by the main climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) due to greenhouse effect estimated for 2040–2070; root-mean-square deviations from these values; relative errors of the estimates; mean values of changes in the runoff depth for different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions; absolute and relative deviations of these values from their means for scenarios and integration of models. Chronological forecasts of possible changes in the mean runoff values for the rivers of Volga, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Yana, Indigirka, Kolyma, and Amur up to 2100 are calculated, and the root-mean-square errors of these characteristics are evaluated for the maximum number of uncertainties in the forecast. The greenhouse effect is shown to be less significant, other factors being the same, for rivers with small drainage basins and rivers with small modulus of flow.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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