An Analysis of Sea-Level Cyclone Errors in NMC's Nested Grid Model (NGM) During the 1987-88 Winter Season
| Autor: | Steven L. Mullen, Bruce B. Smith |
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| Rok vydání: | 1990 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Weather and Forecasting. 5:433-447 |
| ISSN: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| Popis: | A study of sea-level cyclone errors which occurred in 24- and 48-h forecasts of the National Meteorological Center's nested grid model (NGM) is performed for the 1987–88 winter season (1 December 1987–31 March 1988). All available 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC forecast cycles are analyzed for North America and adjacent ocean regions. Errors in forecasted central pressure and position are computed. NGM forecasts of cyclone central pressure average 0.6 mb too deep at 24 hours and 0.3 mb too deep at 48 hours. The root-mean-square (RMS) errors for central pressure are 5.7 mb at 24 hours and 7.9 mb at 48 hours. The mean systematic displacement errors are 29 km at 24 hours and 51 km at 48 hours, and are directed towards the west at both times. The mean absolute displacement errors are much larger, 268 km at 24 hours and 393 km at 48 hours. Cyclone movement is forecasted too slow more frequently than too fast. Large variability in the skill of successive runs characterizes NGM cyclone forecasts though, with ∼70... |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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