| Popis: |
In this chapter, the VaR of the MSCI emerging market index (MSCI-EMI) developed by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) is estimated using linear, nonlinear time series and ANN. In this context, the aim of the study is to estimate the VaR exceedance of the MSCI-EMI as a global financial risk indicator compared with traditional time series methods and ANN. In addition, the most effective method on this index is determined by statistical information criteria, and the comparative evaluation of the model selection criteria is carried out. The period of analysis is between December 1987-April 2020 with monthly frequency and VaR exceedance obtained with ARMA-GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, GJR, and ANN models. Confidence levels of models, VaR exceedance, and Kupeic statistics are obtained. VaR exceedances are examined through the superior model. |
